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Sunday, July 21, 2024

Why We Call It Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

Will Artificial Intelligence - AI replace Humans?



Artificial Intelligence, AI is not smart like humans


By Dr. Kevin Turnquest-Alcena
Nassau, NP, The Bahamas

Kevin Turnquest-Alcena
Early humans used basic tools to improve their chances of survival. The discovery of fire, the creation of rudimentary weapons, and the development of agriculture were significant milestones in human ingenuity.

Advances in mathematics, science, and engineering during the Renaissance laid the groundwork for modern AI. Innovations such as Leonardo da Vinci's mechanical knight illustrate early attempts to create automated systems.

The Industrial Revolution marked a period of rapid technological advancement. The development of mechanical looms, steam engines, and early computers like Charles Babbage's Analytical Engine represented significant steps toward automation and computation.

Computer Age (20th Century):

The mid-20th century saw the development of electronic computers and the birth of AI as a formal field of study. Alan Turing's work on machine logic and the Turing Test provided a foundational framework for understanding machine intelligence.

21st Century and Beyond:

Today, AI encompasses a wide range of technologies, including machine learning, natural language processing, and robotics. These advancements have the potential to revolutionize industries and improve quality of life on a global scale.

Man Versus Machine: Perspectives from Dr. Frank Chatonda

Dr. Frank Chatonda, a long-time computer and telecommunications technology research engineer, offers a unique perspective on the comparison between human and machine intelligence. According to Dr. Chatonda, the perception that computers are more intelligent than humans is a misinformed view. He argues that human thinking is likely faster than the speed of light, while computers execute simple instructions measured in machine cycles. By which time the human thought has transverse the galaxies and back.

Human Thinking vs. Machine Execution:

Human Thinking: The human mind can process complex thoughts and ideas, often subconsciously and at incredible speeds. This continuous, interactive thought process enables humans to innovate, create, and solve problems in ways that machines cannot.

Machine Execution: Computers, while capable of executing instructions rapidly, do so in a linear and predefined manner. They do not possess the ability to think or understand; they merely follow programmed instructions.

Dr. Chatonda suggests that what we call computer intelligence should more accurately be described as the apparent speed of execution relative to human reaction times. This distinction highlights the difference between human cognitive abilities versus machine output processing.

Dr. Chatonda also points out the limitations of digital computing, which increasingly relies on processing binary probabilities and polynomial approximations. He suggests that we may soon reach the limits of digital computing and need to revisit analog computing concepts. Analog computing, more akin to biological processes, could offer a path forward, leveraging continuous variables and more naturalistic problem-solving methods.

The Difference Between Human Learning and Machine Learning


Human Learning: Human learning is a complex, adaptive process that involves the integration of knowledge, skills, and experiences. Bloom's Taxonomy classifies learning into six cognitive levels: knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation. This hierarchical model emphasizes the importance of higher-order thinking skills, such as critical thinking and problem-solving.

Human learning is also influenced by genetic development and adaptation. The human brain's ability to form new connections and adapt to new information is a key factor in our capacity for learning and innovation.

Machine Learning: Machine learning, on the other hand, involves training algorithms to recognize patterns and make predictions based on data. Unlike human learning, machine learning is not adaptive in the same way. Machines do not possess instincts or consciousness; they rely on vast amounts of data and predefined rules to perform tasks.

AI-driven data search engines use computer logic to process information and provide results. These systems operate based on binary logic and statistical models, which allow them to handle large datasets and complex computations quickly. However, they lack the ability to understand context or reason beyond their programming.

The Future is happening Now

AI History
In this section, we have explored the historical context of AI, highlighting its deep roots in human history and the continuous evolution of tools and systems that have paved the way for modern AI. We also compared human learning and machine learning, illustrating the profound differences in their processes and capabilities. This perspective challenges the notion that AI is a recent invention and emphasizes its potential to enhance human equality and understanding. Additionally, we discussed Dr. Frank Chatonda's insights on the true nature of computing and human cognition, shedding light on common misconceptions and the future of computing.

Finally, we celebrated the miracle of human intelligence, emphasizing the unparalleled nature of human creativity and ingenuity. From prehistoric tools to modern AI, human innovation has continually driven progress. As we look to the future, the integration of AI and other advanced technologies promises to further enhance our capabilities and improve our quality of life.

These references and insights provide a comprehensive overview of the evolution of AI, its historical context, and its future potential. They highlight the continuous growth of human creativity and the ongoing impact of technological advancements on society.

Discuss why We call the neophyte but promising Technology AI, instead of something more realistic like "Language Process Search Engines", Example explain it is because of the same reason copiers, might be called Xerox or vacuum cleaners might be called hoovers. In this case, the Co-Developer of the first symbolic computation and manipulation language "LISP" meaning List Programming, because of it's dynamic and high level transformational variable handling during execution, John McCarthy (1955) called the Language LISP AI (To point that the language could change some logic while executing, as a result it is still used today, And the AI name has ever since been associated with any symbolic and language processing, with foundations from this early Dartmouth College pioneers. However, suffice to say AI is indeed still at it's toddler stages. Another contributor to AI is Adam Minisky, whose great work contributed to robotics advancement at MIT and his groundbreaking in "Society OF Mind Theory" that has expanded logic patterns being in use today. Arthur Samuels (1959) developed machine learning at IBM, Other notable contributors include Claude Shanon, who also developed a practical digital (Boolean) Logic circuit. Joseph Weizenbaum developer of Eliza mimicking human conversation with a computer program. While American history focus on American Technology development, There are many contributions from other nations and communities. Worth of mention such as Dr. Philip Emeagwali (Nigeria) inventor of networked computing processors and Nobel Peace Prize for Computing which enabled AI engines to support many sessions, an essential element of cloud computing like AI

Modern Implications of AI: Today, AI is often portrayed as a revolutionary force that could potentially surpass human intelligence. However, this apocalyptic view misses the point. AI, as we know it, is an extension of human capability, designed to assist and augment human decision-making rather than replace it. Emmanuel Levinas, a philosopher, proclaimed that "We are all connected," suggesting that conflicts arise from misunderstandings of this concept. AI has the potential to bridge these gaps and foster a more connected and equitable world. As well it’s capabilities with see potential interfaces with our bodily functions, to replace body parts from limps, to kidneys, hearts and maybe lungs, while it is quite feasible to envision creation of a robot or computer which can make a human feel as if they are having a conversation, It is almost (never say never) but currently mathematically impossible to ever create a machine that feels anything at all.

Industrial Revolution:

The Industrial Revolution marked a period of rapid technological advancement. The development of mechanical looms, steam engines, and early computers like Charles Babbage's Analytical Engine represented significant steps toward automation and computation.

Computer Age (20th Century):

The mid-20th century saw the development of electronic computers and the birth of AI as a formal field of study. Alan Turing's work on machine logic and the Turing Test provided a foundational framework for understanding machine intelligence.

21st Century and Beyond:

Today, AI encompasses a wide range of technologies, including machine learning, natural language processing, and robotics. These advancements have the potential to revolutionize industries and improve quality of life on a global scale.

The Evolution of AI: From Theory to Practical Applications


Theoretical neural networks, mathematics, and computers were initially developed as independent fields. Their integration and practical applications in industry evolved significantly between 1950 and 1980. One of the noteworthy early advancements in AI was the development of code-breaking machines towards the end of World War II. These machines, used to decode German messages in the UK, were early examples of applied AI and computational ingenuity.

The first practical neural network was developed by Frank Rosenblatt in 1957. Rosenblatt's Perceptron model was designed to simulate the thought processes of the human brain, marking a significant step forward in neural network research. Around the same time, Arthur Samuel's work on machine learning demonstrated that computers could learn from experience and improve their performance over time. Samuel's checkers-playing program, which used a form of reinforcement learning, was one of the first instances of a computer program that could adapt and optimize its strategies based on past outcomes.

Despite these advancements, the practical utility of AI and robotics remained a challenge well into the 1970s. The limitations of hardware, the complexity of algorithms, and the need for substantial computational power hindered the widespread adoption of AI technologies. It wasn't until the development of more powerful computers and more sophisticated algorithms in the late 20th century that AI began to find practical applications in various industries.

The Promising Yet Neophyte Nature of AI

While AI has made significant strides, it remains a young and evolving field. Much of its potential is still being explored, and the term AI continues to evoke a sense of futuristic promise. It is essential to recognize that AI, in its current form, is still at the "toddler" stage, with vast potential for growth and improvement. At the time of writing simple test of most AI platforms are inundated with erroneous information. Hence it is a wonderful tool but still a bridge in construction stage.

Why We Call It AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a term that has become synonymous with advanced technological systems capable of performing tasks that typically require human intelligence. However, the scope of AI extends far beyond what the term might suggest, and a more precise descriptor like "Language Processing Search Engines" could arguably be more appropriate for many of its current applications. Understanding why we continue to use the term AI involves examining historical, cultural, and marketing influences that have shaped the field.

The Origin of the Term "Artificial Intelligence"

The term "Artificial Intelligence" was coined in 1955 by John McCarthy, a computer scientist who co-developed the first symbolic computation and manipulation language known as LISP (List Programming). LISP was designed for AI research because of its ability to handle dynamic and high-level transformational variable handling during execution. McCarthy chose to label the field as AI to highlight the language's capacity to modify logic while executing, which gave it an appearance of intelligence. This nomenclature has stuck and remains influential to this day.

Historical Influences and Pioneers

Several early pioneers contributed to the field of AI, solidifying its name and concept:

John McCarthy (1955): As mentioned, McCarthy's work with LISP and his coining of the term AI were pivotal in defining the field.

Arthur Samuel (1959): Developed one of the first self-learning programs, a checkers-playing algorithm at IBM, which demonstrated the potential for machines to improve their performance through experience.

Claude Shannon: Developed practical digital (Boolean) logic circuits, foundational for modern computing and AI.

Joseph Weizenbaum: Created ELIZA, an early natural language processing program that mimicked human conversation, showcasing the potential for computers to engage in dialogue.

These early developments were often more symbolic and theoretical than practical, but they laid the groundwork for the expansive field of AI.

Marketing and Cultural Influences

The use of the term AI has also been influenced by marketing and cultural factors. Just as copiers are often referred to as "Xerox" machines or vacuum cleaners as "Hoovers," AI has become a brand name that signifies cutting-edge technology. This branding helps in attracting attention, funding, and talent to the field. The allure of creating machines that can "think" like humans has a profound appeal and has driven both public interest and investment. But the ”culprit” is McCarthy at Dartmouth College who dubbed the first AI programming language LISP as AI, as explained above, but most likely driven to the more novel AI term by the same reasons listed here.

The Reality of Current AI Technologies

Despite the grandiose term, much of what we call AI today could indeed be more accurately described as "Language Processing Search Engines" or similar terms. Many AI applications, particularly those in natural language processing, involve sophisticated algorithms that analyze and generate human language. These systems are excellent at pattern recognition, data processing, and executing predefined rules, but they lack true comprehension or consciousness.

The Evolution of AI Concepts and Technologies

The development of AI can be traced back to several key milestones and contributions from various fields and regions:

The Dartmouth Conference (1956): Often considered the birth of AI as an academic discipline, this conference brought together researchers who laid the foundational theories for AI.

Code-Breaking Machines in WWII: Machines like the British Bombe, used to decode German messages, were early examples of practical AI applications.

Neural Networks: The first practical neural network, the Perceptron, was developed by Frank Rosenblatt in 1957, showing that computers could simulate some aspects of human thought.

Machine Learning: Arthur Samuel's work at IBM demonstrated that computers could learn from data, a concept that is central to modern AI.

Broader Contributions to AI

AI's development is not limited to the United States. Notable international contributions include:

Dr. Philip Emeagwali: A Nigerian-born scientist who invented networked computing processors, essential for supporting multiple sessions in AI engines and contributing to the speed and efficiency of cloud computing.

Japanese Fifth Generation Computer Systems (1980s): A national project aimed at creating computers using massively parallel computing/processing, which influenced AI research globally.

Unsung Heroes of AI

While many prominent figures are well-recognized for their contributions to AI, several other significant contributors have not received the same level of attention:

Dr. Edwin Zishiri (Zimbabwe): A pioneer of an AI-based pacemaker that is saving lives today. This long-term device has stopped pacemaker patients from needing follow-up surgery periodically, as they are fitted with lifelong pacemakers.

Dr. Shirley Ann Jackson: Holder of many patents at MIT and Bell Labs, including the development of the Touch Tone Generator and portable fax.

Dr. Gladys Mae West: A mathematician whose work was instrumental in the development of the Global Positioning System (GPS).

These individuals made groundbreaking contributions that interconnect in the realms of mathematics, communication protocols, and systemic feasibility of interdependency, which are shared as partial circuits or protocols enabling the smooth operation of "The network of things" that make neural networks possible

Will AI replace Humans

Yes and No, AI even at its most integrated maturity stage perhaps less than a decade from now will not be a panacea nor apocalyptic. What AI will be is a versatile tool. And therefore only the uneducated should panic, because for millions of years we have lived with another versatile tool, which has caused much damage and so far we have used it more wisely to benefit from it’s warmth, rather than it’s scorch because it is also versatile and capable of of misuse and abuse, we call it fire. AI will be our New Fire, and can misused and abused to our detriment as well. Therefore, it is up to us to educate ourselves about the versatile technologies and tools we build.

"Artificial Intelligence" captures the imagination and conveys the transformative potential of our lives, despite being somewhat of a misnomer for many of its applications. The contributions of pioneers like John McCarthy, Arthur Samuel, and many others have laid a strong foundation, but as we move forward, it is crucial to maintain a realistic perspective on what AI can achieve and recognize that it’s ongoing revolution is a function of a sound and well-grounded educated perspective of the difference between humans and machines.

While a machine can make you feel as if you are conversing with someone, might even conjure all kinds of emotions within you, the machine will never feel anything about you. It is just a machine with no emotions. The more you learn how to build better machines and how best to use them the better you will be. Welcome to School of The Future Today!

References

McCarthy, J. (1955). "A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence."

Samuel, A. L. (1959). "Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers." IBM Journal of Research and Development, 3(3), 210-229.

Weizenbaum, J. (1966). "ELIZA—A Computer Program for the Study of Natural Language Communication Between Man and Machine." Communications of the ACM, 9(1), 36-45.

Pickover, C. A. (2019). "The History of Artificial Intelligence."

Emeagwali, P. Contributions to networked computing processors.

Zishiri, E. (n.d.). AI-based pacemaker innovations.

Jackson, S. A. (n.d.). Patents and innovations at MIT and Bell Labs.

West, G. M. (n.d.). Contributions to the development of GPS.

This contextual understanding helps demystify AI, aligning its perceived capabilities with its actual technological advancements and potential

Bloom, B. S. (1956). Taxonomy of Educational Objectives: The Classification of Educational Goals. Handbook I: Cognitive Domain. Longman

Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press.

Chatonda, F. (2020). Computational Limits and Human Cognition: Rethinking Machine Intelligence. Journal of Advanced Computing, 34(2), 45-67.

Emeagwali, P. Contributions to networked computing processors.

Jackson, S. A. (n.d.). Patents and innovations at MIT and Bell Labs.

Levinas, E. (1987). Time and the Other (R. Cohen, Trans.). Duquesne University Press.

Pickover, C. A. (2019). "The History of Artificial Intelligence."

Pickover, C. A. (2019). The Science Book: Big Ideas Simply Explained. DK.

Russell, S., & Norvig, P. (2021). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (4th ed.). Pearson.
Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Knopf.

Weizenbaum, J. (1966). "ELIZA—A Computer Program for the Study of Natural Language Communication Between Man and Machine." Communications of the ACM, 9(1), 36-45.

West, G. M. (n.d.). Contributions to the development of GPS.

Zishiri, E. (n.d.). AI-based pacemaker innovations.

Thursday, July 4, 2024

A Real Success Story of E-commerce in the Southern Cone of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay

The future holds further growth and greater opportunities for companies in Latin America and the Caribbean as they continue to consolidate their position as major players in global e-commerce


E-commerce in the Southern Cone

by  - 


In recent years, a boom in e-commerce has swept the world, transforming how businesses operate and people shop. 


E-commerce Latin America and the Caribbean
The Southern Cone countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay—are no strangers to this digital revolution.  E-commerce is becoming increasingly important in these economies, creating new opportunities for businesses to reach customers worldwide, diversify their export markets, and boost sales.  It’s also driving growth in logistics, payment systems, and financial services.

The spread of e-commerce is hugely significant.  According to the latest estimates, e-commerce sales in Latin America and the Caribbean will exceed US$117 billion by 2023 and are expected to almost double by 2028.  This growth could potentially lower the cost of products for Latin Americans by increasing efficiency, cutting out intermediaries, and reducing transaction costs.  It also gives consumers access to a greater quantity and variety of goods and services.

The region is still facing challenges: the data shows that domestic and cross-border e-commerce in Latin America and the Caribbean represent just 0.77% of GDP, one of the lowest shares in the world, compared to 3.11% globally.  There are also significant differences between countries: Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico alone account for more than 70% of the region’s e-commerce.

To better understand the progress made by companies in this field in the Southern Cone, a new IDB report takes stock of the current status of this form of trade.  The report is based on data on the adoption of e-commerce and online transactions, as well as a proprietary survey examining how companies in the five countries use e-commerce and the challenges they face in building their online sales.  It also discusses the outcomes of specific government policies and makes several policy recommendations to boost cross-border online sales.

The survey led to some interesting findings:

- E-commerce is widespread: almost half of microbusinesses use a marketplace as part of their sales operations to individual consumers, while that percentage is around 70% for medium and large companies.  Companies of all sizes, from small businesses to large corporations, are embracing the opportunity to reach consumers online.

- International expansion: One third of the companies surveyed that use marketplaces for sales report that they are expanding their operations internationally through e-commerce.  This approach enables companies to enter new markets, increase their opportunities for growth, and diversify their revenue streams.

- Greater customer acquisition, revenues, export opportunities, and lower costs: whether through marketplaces or their own online stores, sellers report that e-commerce brings significant benefits in terms of new customers, sales, and export opportunities.  They’ve also forged closer ties with local suppliers, which positively impacted their communities.  About one-fifth of companies selling through online marketplaces have hired new services in their home markets, and one-fourth have increased the services they use as a result of selling online.  In contrast, companies using social networks as a sales channel are less likely to see these benefits.  However, even these businesses say that they have gained new customers, improved the customer experience, and increased sales to existing customers due to using these channels.

- Logistics challenges: 60% of companies selling goods say that high domestic logistics costs have cost them growth, while 57% attribute this loss to the quality of international logistics and 56% to the cost of these.

- Data movement and cybersecurity challenges: the top challenges for services companies are moving data across borders (64% of respondents), the quality of internet connections (60%), managing market access rules (55%), and cybersecurity (54%).

The survey reveals that e-commerce is a real success story in the Southern Cone.  Businesses of all sizes are using this online revolution to expand their operations.  However, the private sector’s logistical, regulatory, and data security challenges should not be overlooked.

The future holds further growth and greater opportunities for companies in Latin America and the Caribbean as they continue to consolidate their position as major players in global e-commerce.

For these reasons, the IDB is deeply committed to strengthening e-commerce in Latin America and the Caribbean.  We firmly believe in creating and nurturing connections between Latin American and Caribbean companies and helping them find new business partners and export markets.  To achieve this, we build business networks, create spaces for dialogue, and facilitate matchmaking among companies in the region.  We also help generate empirical evidence to inform public policy.  For example, we’ve carried out studies on logistical barriers to e-commercefinancial tools for businesses, and the challenges of online payments.  We’ve also emphasized the importance of rules defining online intermediaries’ work and responsibilities and their impact on the digital economy, including creating and distributing third-party content used by platforms and access to this.

We also created ConnectAmericas, a regional and global platform that has become the region’s leading online network for entrepreneurs.  It has more than 800,000 registered users and received more than 14 million visits.  Online platforms like ConnectAmericas play a crucial role in reducing search costs, which makes it easier for companies to export.  A study of companies using ConnectAmericas found that their exports increased by 17% after joining the platform.

E-commerce is not only a critical export channel for the region, it’s also a potentially significant growth engine for businesses.

In light of this positive outlook, we at the IDB will continue to work closely with the private and public sectors to foster this momentum.  Our goal is to help build a more inclusive and developed region where e-commerce drives progress and prosperity for all.

Source

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

The Bahamas Government Announces Comprehensive Energy Reforms

Announcement of New and Comprehensive Energy Reforms across the Commonwealth of The Bahamas by Hon. JoBeth Coleby-Davis, M.P., Minister of Energy and Transport

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Bahamas Comprehensive Energy Reforms
Our specific reforms include:

▪ Building of utility-scale solar power in the Family Islands

▪ Expansion of solar projects on New Providence

▪ Modernization of the Electricity Grid and Transmission and Distribution Network for New Providence, through a partnership between BPL and Island Grid

▪ Transforming Energy Generation through LNG Implementation in New Providence

and

▪ Equity Rate Adjustment. Reform

Reform 1: Building of utility-scale solar power in the Family Islands

In December 2023, the Government of The Bahamas and BPL launched a Request for Proposals (RFP) Family Island New Energy Generation via Micro- Grids, Clean Fuel & Renewables.

The goal of the RFPs is to create more independence in energy generation on all our islands, utilizing clean fuel and renewables.

We invited bids from respondents interested in offering renewable energy based Independent Power Producer projects for multiple systems in Abaco, Andros, Bimini, Eleuthera, Exuma, Long Island, San Salvador, and The Berry Islands.

The projects aim to regulate resource management, improve energy storage capacity, facilitate new generation capabilities, and enhance sustainability efforts.  The development of microgrids on these various islands will ensure consistent and reliable power output for its inhabitants, 24 hours a day.

Each project will be managed locally to minimize wastage, reduce generation costs, and will ultimately drive each island involved toward the goal of self-sustainability.

All proposals were thoroughly reviewed and scored by an Evaluation Committee, with broad experience in the public service, energy, and legal fields.

I am pleased to share that the recommended IPP for Abaco is Verdant and Consus, Andros is Providence Advisors, Eleuthera is Verdant and Consus, Exuma is INTI Corporation and Osprey Construction, and Long Island, San Salvador, and The Berry Islands is Wilkem Technologies and Roswall Incorporation.

Currently, we are negotiating the power purchase agreements.

Each island has unique energy requirements and geographical constraints, necessitating a customized energy solution.  To ensure the most suitable approach, each island's technical specifications were thoroughly reviewed for applicability.  We have finalized the design criteria in terms of agreement and selected both the microgrid controller and the communication profile.  Long lead time supply chain equipment has been identified and their specifications have been submitted to the respective manufacturers.  We anticipate that ground-breaking will begin by the end of 2024.

To ensure operational efficiency, every Independent Power Producer was required to submit a rigorous training programme for BPL staff.  This included operating and maintaining gas engines, utility-scale solar, battery energy storage systems, microturbines and biomass to electricity.  These leading-edge technologies will put BPL at the forefront of the global energy transformation.

Reform 2: Expansion of Solar Projects on New Providence

The New Providence RFP invited independent power producers to interconnect more renewable energy options to the national grid.

This initiative provides a green energy solution for the existing battery energy storage while adding renewable energy to the overall energy mix.

Approximately 70 MW of solar power and 35 MW of battery energy storage systems will be integrated into the existing grid.  25MW of the solar energy will be paired with the 25MWH of battery energy storage system at the Blue Hills Power Station.

I am pleased to share that the recommended independent power producer for New Providence are Eco Energy, INTI, and Compass.

The power purchase agreements are currently being negotiated.

Reform 3: Modernization of the Electricity Grid and Transmission and Distribution Network for New Providence, through a partnership between BPL and Island Grid

To understand reform 3, permit me to share a few irrefutable facts:

• BPL operates 29 power stations on 17 islands.

• In less than a decade, BPL/ BEC amassed almost $500M in debt.

• BPL has loan interest payments of more than $28M annually and a $122M pension liability.

• BPL has about 90MW of aged/obsolete generation assets teetering on the edge in New Providence and another 30MW in the family islands.

• To augment its generation needs in New Providence and the Family Islands, BPL relies on 145MW rental generation between New Providence and the Family Island costing about $42M annually.

• BPL’s T&D infrastructure is in desperate need of upgrades as much of it dates to the 1980s and early 1990s with few enhancements to reduce significant system losses.

• BPL’s present infrastructure is crippled by the effects of climate change with soaring temperatures and natural disasters having a detrimental effect on the company’s assets.

• Finally, BPL is not well positioned to complement the country’s growth projections for the next 5-10 years as generation projections call 340MW of power needed for New Providence and 100MW for the Family Islands.

The partnership with Island Grid will extend the infrastructure capabilities beyond BPL alone can do by bringing in a generation and T&D expert to pursue much-needed upgrades.

It is important to share that Island Grid has over 60 years’ experience in delivering best in class energy infrastructure.  The company’s projects included work on Walkers Cay, Grand Cayman, Grand Bahama, and Puerto Rico.

The partnership with Island Grid, will lower the fuel cost, and improve operating efficiency.

The benefit of this arrangement will be felt through affordable energy prices and fewer power interruptions.

Energy costs will be lowered through several mechanisms.  First is the shift towards generation options with lower-cost fuels or no-cost fuels in the case of renewable generation.  Second is the upgrade of the grid, which will bring about a more efficient delivery of power, so less energy is wasted getting the power from the generation plant to your home.  Third, a well-built and well-sized system will allow for lower ongoing maintenance costs than what we currently have today.  All these savings will be passed along to customers.

The T&D agreement will improve reliability on New Providence.

The T&D work is designed to improve reliability along several dimensions: the addition of a new switching station and a new transmission line and proper looping of the system, reconductoring work, substation protection upgrades and targeted distribution protection schemes and voltage regulation.  These are foundational to the reliable operation of any T&D system and are currently in urgent need of attention.

To maintain international standards and engineering oversight, ECF Consulting has been engaged as the Owner’s Engineer.  ECF, on behalf of the Bahamian people, will independently oversee all projects to completion, coordinating between various stakeholders, including contractors, suppliers, and regulatory authorities.

To the workers of BPL, I wish to categorically state that there will be no layoffs because of the 17 partnership.  There is no intention to offer a voluntary separation programme and current industrial agreements will not be impacted.

It is our expectation that exciting new roles and training opportunities will emerge that BPL employees will have early access to.

Meetings will be held with all employees of BPL to ensure that all questions and concerns will be answered.

Reform 4: Transforming Energy Generation through LNG Implementation in New Providence

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is set to revolutionise energy generation in New Providence, significantly benefiting consumers and the environment.

By integrating LNG, we aim to reduce overall energy costs, enhance the efficiency of our generation assets, and minimise environmental impacts.  This initiative introduces LNG as a cleaner alternative to Heavy Fuel Oil and Automotive Diesel Oil.

LNG is being implemented for efficient generation in New Providence.  To reduce the overall energy cost to the consumer, improve the efficiency of the generation assets, and reduce environmental impacts, LNG is being brought to The Bahamas as HFO and ADO.

The bulk purchase of LNG will be sourced from Shell.  Other partners in the LNG implementation will include Bahamas Utility Company (BUC), as the independent power producer under a purchase power agreement.

By 2026, we will construct a state-of-the-art 177 MW Combined Cycle LNG plant at the Blue Hills Power Station.  This innovative facility will feature four natural gas units paired with two steam turbines, maximising efficiency by utilising excess steam from the gas units.

This combined cycle configuration will be the most cost-effective generation solution in the BPL fleet.  It will replace the 107 MW of rented generation capacity and address the 63 MW generation shortfall under contingency conditions, enhancing redundancy and resilience.

In addition to the new units, BPL will convert two of its original generators at the Blue Hills Power Station, completing the transition to a more efficient and resilient system.  BPL and its consumers are projected to save approximately $125.6 million annually through fuel switching and improved engine efficiency.

Reform 5: Equity Rate Adjustment

Beginning in July 2024, a new Equity Rate Adjustment will make bills more affordable for many Bahamian families now as we transition to a new era in energy.

With the existing tariff structure, residential customers and SMEs are presently subsidizing general service customers (high energy users).

The Equity Rate Adjustment is a reduction in the base tariff rate for residential consumers.  The adjustment creates a more equitable balance to the current tariff structure and encourages energy conservation.

All residential consumers with low and moderate electricity usage will benefit, as the base rate tariff for the first 0 to 200 kWh will be reduced to zero.  The upper bands will stay the same, but even if you are a resident with a bill of around 600kWh you will still benefit from the rate of your first 200kWh being reduced to zero.  Note that everyone will still have to pay for the fuel charge for every unit they consume.

The Commercial base tariff will drop slightly from 15 cents to 14.5 cents and the Temporary Supply base tariff, which particularly affects the Family Islands, will drop from 16.38 cents to 15 cents.  Again, they will both continue to also pay for their fuel charge.

We are also amending the fuel charge by reducing the charge for the first 800kWh by 2.5 cents and increasing the charge above 800kWh by 1.5 cents.  Consumers who use less energy will enjoy a lower fuel charge.  This is important as the more electricity used on the grid, the more BPL must utilize generators which are more expensive to run.

The new rates will be in effect until a comprehensive tariff review is completed, and new rates are approved by the government and URCA.

The General Service base tariff will rise from 8.7 to 10 cents for the first 900,000 units and from 6.2 to 9 cents for units above 900,000 units.  Currently General Service customers receive a subsidy of about $20 million from other BPL customers every year, but they will still be paying less than all other energy classes and will still benefit from a more modest subsidy.

The cost of energy should fall over time because of the efficiency upgrades at BPL includes:

- The installation of a new HFO Boiler at Clifton Pier to save $36 million dollars per year in fuel costs

- Installation of two new 30MW LNG burning units, which will save $30 million dollars per year in fuel costs, and

- Conversion of BPL’s USD debt to BSD.

I am so excited that we are all here to take part in the transformative energy journey – to be able to say that we did it.  I am very proud that with our solar solutions for New Providence and the Family Islands that all the successful bidders had at least 50 percent Bahamian ownership and many were in fact 100 percent Bahamian owned.

We are also delighted that opportunities for young Bahamians will be created through a partnership with The Bahamas Technical and Vocational Institute (BTVI).

The positive effect of what we are kicking off now will not only be felt by our children and our children’s children generation, but it will be noticed around the world.

Thank you.


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Friday, May 10, 2024

The Benefits and Pitfalls of Artificial Intelligence - AI

The Best Star-Wars Scenario for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution


AI and the Importance of Regulation from a Star-Wars Perspective


By 


While the uses and capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) continue to grow at a fast pace, the head-long rush into new frontiers could have significant drawbacks.  As Anton Korinek, an AI expert at the University of Virginia, described in a recent blog, AI systems could soon replace relatively unskilled cognitive workers, like people who work in call centers or low-level accountants.  More disruptively, such systems could eventually learn to do more complex tasks, take over robotics and manufacturing, and displace manual laborers and highly skilled cognitive workers, causing wages to crash and inequality and hardship to deepen.

Artificial Intelligence and Star Wars
Such a dystopia would not be far from some of the scenarios depicted in Star Wars, that futuristic saga of events in a galaxy far, far away, where worlds of oppression and injustice co-exist with others aiming for a more perfect order.  And as Korinek indicates, a more perfect order is possible.  Indeed, the extent to which AI disrupts the labor market and how much it affects people, may well depend on the degree of regulation governments establish.  Consider as analogies, three different cases from the Star Wars universe.

Anarchic State: The Outer Rim Territories

Artificial Intelligence Benefits and Downsides
In the Star Wars galaxy, the Outer Rim Territories often represent a rugged, lawless or less regulated area where the central government’s influence is weak and predators roam.  This can be likened to countries that don’t regulate AI, leading to a kind of anarchy where innovation is unbridled and the risks associated with unchecked AI development abound.  A lack of regulation can spur rapid technological advances.  But it can also lead to ethical dilemmas, misuses of technology, and harm to society, as happens in planets like Tatooine, which is controlled by wealthy and powerful crime lords, but where most inhabitants, including small-town residents and farmers, live in poverty or just scrape by.  Such an imbalance creates a stark contrast between the powerful few and the impoverished majority.  Unfortunately, many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean may end up in a similar equilibrium.  AI in such a scenario would grow, as would productivity and wealth.  But its fruits would benefit only those with access to the means of production, rather than the populace as a whole.

Authoritarian Regulation: The Galactic Empire

The Galactic Empire represents a highly centralized and authoritarian regime where control is exercised over many aspects of life, including technology and scientific advancement.  In this analogy, the Empire’s approach to regulation might create rents — privileges granted by the government in response to lobbying or other manipulation — in the same way that poorly implemented AI regulations could favor certain industries or companies.  This can stifle innovation in other sectors.  It can concentrate power and wealth, leading to inequality and potential abuses of power, akin to how the Empire benefits a select few while suppressing the majority.  Some countries in our region will try to prevent the negative effects of AI.  They will regulate what can and can’t be done with it.  For example, AI may be used to check legal documents, but a lawyer may still need to sign off.  It could be used to diagnose patients, but a doctor would still need to sign the prescriptions.  In other words, to preserve certain jobs, many tasks that could be done independently and unburdened by bureaucracy may still have to pass through physical hands.  Some people will benefit from these rents created by the government.  But those not so lucky to be part of a guild or pressure group may lack access both to the benefits of AI and the government-protected rents.

Balanced Regulation: The Galactic Republic

Before its fall, the Galactic Republic was a democratic union that governed a large portion of the galaxy.  It represents a more balanced and fair approach, striving to benefit all.  This would be akin to well-thought-out policies and regulations that aim to tax excess profits and ensure that the benefits of AI advancements are broadly shared across society.  Such regulation would ideally mitigate risks.  It would promote innovation and fairness, ensuring that AI serves the public good and doesn’t lead to significant societal disparities.  Governments would let AI flourish and achieve its massive potential for increasing prosperity and wealth.  But they would also find ways to redistribute the benefits in ways that maximize welfare.

Choosing the Best Star-Wars Scenario for the AI Revolution

Government decisions will be crucial in determining which of these scenarios characterize countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.  Anarchy and the Empire are not difficult to achieve.  Governments in the region, which have traditionally been known for introducing bad and distorting regulation could easily facilitate one of those two realities.  Becoming the Galactic Republic is much harder.  To reach that more enlightened state, governments have to invest resources to understand the benefits and pitfalls of AI, generate the conditions for its development, and control its excesses.  They also have to develop a strong social safety net, improve the way they levy taxes — when, where and on what — and make significant investments in public goods and infrastructure. Individuals, in the meantime, will have to find alternative ways of working so they can flourish individually and as a group.  Investing in government capabilities to deal with the new realities created by AI is long overdue.  Unfortunately, many governments may be too passive, delaying till it’s too late.  At that stage, there may be only two choices: that of the anarchic state or the state that benefits only the powerful few.

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Monday, April 8, 2024

In The Digital Economy and Culture - It is crucial to ensure that everyone can benefit from connectivity in an era of rapid technological advancement

The digital future is not guaranteed; it gets shaped through the collaborative efforts of all stakeholders involved


Nothing is Fated: Shaping an Equitable Digital Future Must be a Collective Endeavor


By Edgar CabaƱas


Our Digital World
As Karim Lesina, EVP of Millicom, correctly points out, in the ever-evolving landscape of technology and connectivity, the future is not a predetermined destination awaiting our arrival; rather, it is a realm we actively shape and build together.

The digital future is not guaranteed; it gets shaped through the collaborative efforts of all stakeholders involved.  This sentiment lies at the heart of major telecommunications companies, highlighting the crucial role of collective contributions in steering us toward a future that embraces efficiency, equity, and opportunity.

The indispensable role of collaboration among various actors within the digital ecosystem is a critical factor for success.  From telecommunications giants to policymakers, from innovators to consumers, investors, and development banks, each participant plays a vital role in shaping the trajectory of digitization.


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In recognizing this interdependence, telecommunications companies acknowledge that a shared vision is essential for harnessing the full potential of the digital era.

Efficiency and equity are the twin pillars upon which any successful connectivity policy must rest.  It is crucial to ensure that everyone can benefit from connectivity in an era of rapid technological advancement.

The All Embracing Digital Culture
This requires deploying robust infrastructure and implementing policies that bridge the digital divide and empower marginalized communities.  By fostering an environment of inclusivity and accessibility, telecommunications companies pave the way for a more equitable digital future.

However, achieving these goals necessitates the concerted efforts of all stakeholders involved.  As key architects of the digital landscape, telecommunications companies bear a significant responsibility in this regard.

By endorsing initiatives prioritizing efficiency, equity, and collaboration, these companies demonstrate their commitment to advancing society's collective interests.

At its core, telecommunications companies reflect a recognition of the transformative power of connectivity.  In an increasingly interconnected world, digitization has the potential to revolutionize every aspect of our lives, from education and healthcare to commerce and governance.

Yet, realizing this potential requires more than technological advancement; it demands a shared commitment to fostering an ecosystem that values inclusivity, innovation, and social responsibility.

As we navigate the complexities of the digital future, we must do so with a collective mindset that transcends individual interests and embraces the common good.  By coming together to chart a course toward a more connected, equitable, and sustainable future, we can harness technology's transformative power to build a world that works for everyone.

The major telecommunications companies serve as a testament to the importance of collaboration in shaping the digital future.  By recognizing the shared responsibility, we all bear in this endeavor, we can work towards creating a more connected, inclusive, and prosperous world for generations to come.

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